摘要
本文利用1998年第一季度到2006年第三季度的全国房屋销售价格指数和房屋租赁价格指数的时间序列数据,运用单位根检验、协整关系检验和格兰杰因果关系检验等方法,对我国房价与租金之间的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明,在全国范围内,房价和租金短期相互独立,而房价是租金变动的长期原因。此外,本文还分析了北京、上海、杭州和深圳四个城市房价与租金的关系,结果显示不同城市的房价租金关系也各异。最后,本文分别从模型和经济学的角度对以上结论进行了解释。
This paper adopts the housing price indices and the rent indices from 1Q 1998 to 3Q 2006, and tries to figure out the relationship between the housing price and the rent of Chinese real estate market by the means of unit root test, co-integration relationship test and Granger causality test. The results suggest that, for the whole country, the housing price show and the rent are independent of each other in the short run, but .in the long run, the former dominates the latter. In addition, this paper studies the relationship between housing price and rent of Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou and Shenzhen, and the results show that the relationship varies from one city to another. At the end, this paper explains the results from the viewpoint of the model and economics.
出处
《管理评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第1期94-99,共6页
Management Review
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70672104)
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-05-0811)。
