摘要
首先筛选了宏观经济变量,列出了行为方程和定义方程;其次建立了基于举借外债背景下的宏观经济计量模型,利用动态控制解分析了模型的相对误差和拟合水平;然后利用乘数分析了外债的宏观经济效应,得出我国举债仍较安全,但外债总体效益和管理水平亟待提高的结论。
The paper describes the series of behavior equations and defination equations on the selected macroeconomic variables, this ensures the establishment of a macroeconometric model, which is set on the background of foreign debt. Dynamic solutions given by the model are self-adopted to testify the relative average error and mimic accuracy. Macroeconomic multipliers show the effect of foreign debt to the domestic economy. The model concludes that China is within the safeline in using foreign debt while the comprehensive result and management system is to be improved.
出处
《现代电力》
1998年第1期88-94,共7页
Modern Electric Power
关键词
外债
乘数
内生变量
行为方程
宏观经济效应
foreign debt
multiplier
endogenous variable
behavior equation
macroeconomic effects
