摘要
本文研究了预期气候变化对半驯养条件下瑞典驯鹿夏季和冬季牧草供应情况的潜在影响。对夏季牧场的正面影响包括植物生产力提高和生长期延长,负面影响是昆虫对驯鹿的滋扰增加。牧草质量提高或下降,高山石南灌丛中灌木和乔木增加。气候变暖意味着冬季变短,这有利于驯鹿的生存。然而,暖湿气候也可能导致冰壳形成增加,从而使可食牧草显著降低。气候变暖和森林生产力的增加通过竞争相互作用可能降低地衣的生长量。对这些变化的适应对策包括维持夏季和冬季草场位点的多样性。但是,由于其它土地利用形式的影响,这种能力可能已经受到严重限制。
This paper examines potential effects of predicted climate changes on the forage conditions during both summer and winter for semidomesticated reindeer in Sweden.Positive effects in summer ranges include higher plant productivity and a longer growing season,while negative effects include increased insect harassment.Forage quality may change in both positive and negative ways. An increase in shrubs and trees in alpine heaths is also likely.A warmer climate means shorter winters,which will have positive effects for the survival of reindeer.However,warmer and wetter weather may also result in increased probabilities of ice-crust formations,which strongly decrease forage availability. A warmer climate with higher forest productivity will also likely reduce lichen availability through competitive interactions.Adaptations to these changes will include maintaining a choice of grazing sites in both summer and winter. However,this capacity may already be severely limited because of other forms of land use.
