摘要
在菲律宾大马尼拉,登革热是一个严重的公共卫生问题。持续攀升的登革热发病率已被归因于气候变化;然而,与之相矛盾的报告称,登革热与气候因素之间的显著的相关关系并不存在。为了进一步说明此二者的关系,本研究考察了1996～2005年,大马尼拉市地区的气温和降水两个气候因素对登革热发病率的影响。收集了10年间(1996～2005)大马尼拉地区登革热月发病率和气候数据。对温度和降水两个气候因素与登革热发病率之间的联系进行回归分析。预测模型(登革热发病率为Y,降水为X)显示,降水与登革热发病率显著相关(r^2=0.377,p<0.05);而温度与登革热发病率之间不存在显著的相关关系(p>0.05)。有证据显示,大马尼拉地区登革热发病率随着降水模式的改变而变化。建议加强降水丰富期对蚊子的监控。
Dengue is a serious public health problem in Metro Manila,Philippines. Increasing dengue incidence has been attributed to climate change;however, contradicting reports show inconclusive relationships between dengue and climatic factors.This study investigates temperature and rainfall as climatic factors affecting dengue incidence in Metro Manila from 1996 to 2005.Monthly dengue incidence and climatic data for Metro Manila were collected over a 10- y period (1996-2005).Climatic factors temperature and rainfall were linked with dengue incidence through regression analysis.A predictive model equation plots dengue incidence (Y) versus rainfall (X),which suggests that rainfall is significantly correlated to dengue incidence (r 2° 0.377,p,0.05).No significant correlation between dengue incidence and temperature was established (p.0. 05).Evidence shows dengue incidence in Metro Manila varies with changing rainfall patterns.Intensified surveillance and control of mosquitoes during periods with high rainfall are recommended.
