摘要
由于气候的变化直接或间接地影响了诸如生物多样性、雪盖、冰川、径流过程、水的可利用性等各种不同的关键要素,人们认为地中海群山区的生物群落正在遭受威胁。本文中,基于不同排放情景(排放情景特别报告)和大气-海洋耦合总体循环模型(AOGCMs,Atmosphere-Ocean-Coupled General CirculationModels),我们对两个时期即2055(2040～2069年间)和2085(2070～2099年间)期间地中海群山区的温度、降水量、春季降水量的变化进行了评价。最后,将地中海群山区和欧洲地区非地中海群山区的未来气候变化趋势的预测结果进行了对比。预计到2055期间,温度将增高1.4～5.1℃,而到2085期间将增温1.6～8.3℃。气候模型也预测地中海群山区的降水量将减少,且主要集中于春季(2085期间,排放情景Alfi下减少17%,B1下减少4.8%)。而与之相反,欧洲非地中海群山的年降水量和春季降水量并不会减少。将预期的气候变化对自然和人文特性的意义结合到一个综合框架中,以得到一个关于未来趋势及其后果的更广阔的视角。
Mediterranean mountain biomes are considered endangered due to climate change that affects directly or indirectly different key features (biodiversity, snow cover,glaciers,run-off processes,and water availability).Here,we provide an assessment of temperature,precipitation,and spring precipitation changes in Mediterranean mountains under different emission scenarios (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) and Atmosphere-Ocean-Coupled General Circulation Models for two periods:2055 (2040-2069 period) and 2085 (2070-2099). Finally,the future climate trends projected for Mediterranean mountains are compared with those trends projected for non- Mediterranean European mountain ranges.The range of projected warming varies between +1.4℃ and 5.1 ℃ for 2055 (+1.6℃ and +8.3℃ for 2085).Climate models also project a reduction of precipitation,mainly during spring (-17% under Alfi and -4.8% under B1 for 2085).On the contrary,non-Mediterranean European mountains will not experience a reduction of annual and spring precipitation.Implications of predicted climate change for both human and physical features are coupled in an integrated framework to gain a broad perspective on future trends and their consequences.
