基于VaR的现金流风险度量模型研究被引量：19

The Measuring Model Research of Cash Flow Risk Based on VaR

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摘要与金融企业不同,非金融类企业拥有更多非经常交易且不易估值的资产,因此更关注其在将来某一时刻现金流的不确定性。把现金流在险值与金融工程技术中在险值的概念相结合,运用风险敞口模型分析和蒙特卡洛模拟等计量方法,为非金融类公司管理层、投资者和分析家提供一个简单具体而直接的现金流不确定性的评判指标。通过对在险值和现金流在险值的比较以及对现金流在险值度量模型发展脉络的分析,发现现金流在险值技术更能刻画出非金融类公司的财务风险;通过引入管理决策风险作为风险因子并改进风险敞口模型,计算样本公司的现金流在险值;进一步提出现金流在险值的应用价值和研究方向。 Different from financial firms, non-financial firms posses more assets which are not often traded and difficult to value, so they care more about the tmcertainty of their cash flow in a certain period. Combining Cash flow at risk （CFaR） with the concept of VaR in financial engineering techniques, this study uses risk exposure model analysis and Monte Carlo simulation and provides a simple concrete and direct judgment index for non-financial companies＇ managers, investors and analysts. First, through the comparison of VaR and CFaR and analysis of cash flow at risk measuring model, it is found that CFaR can well describe the financial risk of non-financial firms. Then, by introducing management decision risk into the exposure model, it calculates the CFaR of the samples. At last, it provides the application and further research of CFaR.

作者周敏王春峰房振明

机构地区天津大学管理学院

出处《管理科学》 CSSCI 2008年第6期104-112,共9页 Journal of Management Science

基金国家自然科学基金(70771076) 国家杰出青年科学基金(70225002)

关键词现金流在险值在险值风险敞口模型蒙特卡洛模拟 cash flow at risk VaR risk exposure model Monte Carlo simulation

分类号 F275.1 [经济管理—企业管理]

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