摘要
对灰色预测模型、人口年龄移算法在人口预测结果中的精确度问题进行了比较研究。结论是:(1)灰色预测模型的预测精确度优于人口年龄移算法;(2)灰色预测模型残差在小范围内呈波动趋势,而人口年龄移算法残差表现为随预测时间的推移而增加的趋势;(3)灰色预测模型比人口年龄移算法更适合较长时期的人口预测。
A comparison was made between two demographic models, gray forecasting model（GM） and the model of population-shift algorithm, to study their accuracy in population projection. The authors have come to three conclusions as follows： Firstly, GM is more accurate than the other one. Secondly, the residual error of GM fluctuates in a small range while the residual error of the other model increases as time goes by. Thirdly, the GM is much more adapted to long-period population projections.
出处
《南京人口管理干部学院学报》
2009年第1期29-32,共4页
Journal of Nanjing College for Population Programme Management
关键词
人口预测
灰色模型
人口年龄移算
精确度
Population Projections
GM
Population-shift Algorithm
Analysis of Accuracy
