摘要
应用混沌方法对电力系统历史负荷时间序列进行数理统计处理，并将这种混沌特性应用于短期负荷预测。不直接考虑气候等随机因素，只要根据过去负荷时间序列及计算所得的Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ指数规律，就可得到较高的预测精度。对东北电网实际负荷时间序列进行预测，取得满意的结果。
This paper proposed a new chaos theory method for short term load forecasting of load times series power system. The proposed method forecasted present and future load according to past load and its Lyapunov exponent characteristics calculated based on the history-load, without considering the climate and weather information directly. The effectiveness of the proposed method was demonstrated by one week ahead load forecasting of Northeast Electric Power System.
出处
《控制与决策》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第1期87-90,94,共5页
Control and Decision
关键词
负荷预测
电力系统
混沌理论
time series analysis, short term load forecasting, chaos, Lyapunov exponent
