摘要
目前,城市交通客流预测存在基础数据是否准确、预测模型是否有效以及能否正确理解和应用客流预测理论方法等问题。提出要建立适合各城市特点的规划模型,同时注重建模依据的可靠性以及模型的调校和维护。总结了"四阶段"法各阶段模型以及高峰小时模型在使用过程中需要注意的关键问题。强调要考虑模型各阶段的相互制约关系,进行必要的迭代运算。最后,对城市交通客流预测工作提出5点改进建议。
Currently, urban travel forecasting encounters several issues, as to whether or not the travel survey data are accurate, how reliable the forecasting models are, how to correctly understand and apply the theories and approaches of travel forecasting, among others. This paper argues that urban transportation planning models should be developed according to local characteristics, with em- phasis laid on validity of modeling premises, as well as on calibration and maintenance of the model. The paper summarizes key issues of each step while utilizing the 4-step model and the peak-hour model. Stressing the interactions among the 4 steps, the paper points out that feedback iterations should be carried out for more reasonable results. Finally, the paper proposes 5 suggestions to improve urban travel forecasts.
出处
《城市交通》
2008年第6期5-8,共4页
Urban Transport of China
关键词
交通规划
交通模型
客流预测
模型调校
transportation planning
transportation model
travel forecasting
model adjustment
