摘要
在梳理现有文献的基础上,运用局部调整模型且从经济转型过程中工业化和城市化的视角,以及运用自适应预期模型且从预期经济增长率的视角,分析了我国经济转型过程中的合理投资规模。通过实证分析,得到两个不同的投资率,即局部调整投资率和自适应预期投资率;并分析了实际投资率、局部调整投资率和自适应预期投资率的关系,从而得出经济转型过程中自适应预期投资率、局部调整投资率分别是合理投资率的上、下限的结论。据此,提出宏观投资调控的目标是使实际投资率位于合理的投资规模区间内,以实现转型过程中经济的平稳发展。
Based on reviewing literatures,this paper analyzes the optimal investment scale by using the partial adjustment model from the perspective of industrialization and urbanization during the economic transformation process as well as by using the adaptive expectation model from the perspective of expected economic growth rate, and obtains two different investment rates through empirical analysis which are the investment rate of partial adjustment and the adaptive expected investment rate. Then,by analyzing the relationship between the actual investment rate and the investment rate of partial adjustment as well as the adaptive expected investment rate,it draws a conclusion that the adaptive expected in vestment rate and the investment rate of partial adjustment are respectively the upper limit and the lower limit of the optimal investment rate during the process of economic transformation. Finally,it proposes that the goal of investment macro control is to make the actual investment rate operated at the optimal investment scale range to maintain a smooth transition in the process of economic development.
出处
《技术经济》
2008年第11期88-92,共5页
Journal of Technology Economics
关键词
投资率
投资规模
工业化
城市化
预期经济增长率
investment rate
investment scale
industrialization
urbanization
expected economic growth rate
