摘要
目的研究影响慢性重型肝炎预后的各种因素，建立预后判断模型。方法回顾总结408例慢性重型肝炎病例，依据疗效（临床症状、体征、肝功能、凝血酶原活动度及并发症改善情况）分为有效组和无效组，对两组的临床特征、实验室检查结果进行比较，单因素分析后P〈0．05的指标行Logistic回归分析。结果有效组和无效组在年龄、性别、总胆红素（TBil）、直接胆红素（DBil）、氯离子（Cl^-）、钠离子（Na^＋）、白细胞数（WBC）、平均红细胞容积（MCV）、血浆凝血酶原时间（PT）、血氨（NH3）、凝血酶原活动度（PTA）、血尿素氮（BUN）的差异有统计学意义（P〈0．05）。回归模型P=1／（1＋e^-y），Y=-4．636＋0．022X1＋0．034X2＋0．096X3＋0．047X4-0．042X5，（注：X1：年龄、X2：TBil、X3：BUN、X4：MCV、X5：PTA）。结论年龄、TBil、BUN、MCV、PTA是判断慢性重型肝炎患者预后的独立危险因素。
Objective To analyze factors influencing prognosis and to develop a prognosis predicting model for patients with chronic severe hepatitis. Methods Clinical data from 408 patients suffering from chronic severe hepatitis were divided into improved group and deteriorated group. The main clinical and laboratory variables were analyzed as predictive factors of prognosis with logistic regression analysis. Results It was shown that age, sex, TBil, DBil, [Cl^- ], [ Na^＋ ], WBC, MCV, PT, NH3, PTA, and BUN were different between the two groups with statistical significance （ P 〈 0.05 ）. The prognosis predicting model was P = 1/（ 1 ＋ e^-y ）, Y = - 4.636 ＋ 0.022X1 ＋ 0.034X2 ＋ 0.096X3 ＋ 0.047X4 - 0.042X5 , （ X1-age, X2-TBil, X3-BUN, X4-MCV, X5- PTA）. Conclusion Age, TBil, BUN, MCV and PTA are the independent risk factors related to prognosis of chronic severe hepatitis.
出处
《中华实验和临床病毒学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第5期358-361,共4页
Chinese Journal of Experimental and Clinical Virology
基金
北京市病毒性肝炎重大科技项目资助（H020920020890）
