摘要
区域物流发展规划的制约因素较多,关系复杂,一般理论原型难以建立。但是区域物流发展总离不开区域经济各项产业的发展,因此分析区域经济各产业的发展对物流需求的影响程度及其变动情况,就为区域物流发展规划提供了基础。本文在界定有关变量后,分析区域产业发展及其数据的特点,论证了灰色理论的适用性并作出了基于多组灰关联序的改进性应用。然后以江西省为例,采用滚动计算,求得三个产业增加值对货运量的六组灰关联系数及序,判别各因子重要性程度、其关联性及变动趋势,并从该区域经济和物流发展角度进行分析。
The planning of regional logistics indus-try is restricted by multi complex factors, and the analytical model is hard to setup. However, the devel-opment of regional logistics industry always depends on the development of local industries. Hence an study to the development of local economy and its influence over logistics industry will lay the milestone to the logistics planning. In this paper, some variables are defined, then the characteristics of regional indus-trial development are identified and related data are collected. After discussing the applicability of grey theory, we use the data from Jiangxi province as an ex-ample, to calculate the six groups of the grey rela-tional degree based on a rolling evaluations. The im-portant degree of various factors, their relationship and moving trend are discussed both from the respective of both regional economies and the logistics develop-ment.
出处
《特区经济》
北大核心
2008年第10期203-204,共2页
Special Zone Economy
基金
江西省科技厅软科学研究项目<江西省制造业与物流业协调发展问题研究>的部分研究成果
关键词
物流需求
灰色系统
灰关联分析
区域物流
Logistics demand
Grey system
Grey rela-tional analysis
regional logistics
