摘要
选用13个影响汇率制度选择的典型变量,采用随机效应多元排序选择模型对147个国家的汇率制度选择进行分析,发现经济发展水平、美元化程度、货币错配程度越高,实际资本开放程度越大,政府越强,具有高经济增长和长期通货膨胀历史的国家有较高采用相对固定汇率制度的概率;而经济规模、贸易开放度越大以及外债债务比率越高将会促使一国选择灵活性较高的汇率制度。
To find deciding factor which affect exchange rate regime, the author selects 13 typical variables and uses ordered probit models with random effects to make regime choice analysis of i47 countries. The increase of economic development level and degree of asset dollarization deepening, the deepening of currency mismatch, actual capital opening expands , the rise of the history average real GDP growth rate, long- term inflation in the history and strong government will make states take a relatively fixed exchange rate regime; states with the larger economy scale, higher trade opening and the increase of external debt ratio will be encouraged to choose a greater flexible regime.
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第10期93-97,共5页
On Economic Problems
