摘要
根据６０个地面基本气象台站１９５７～１９９０年逐日雪深、月平均气温、月降水量观测记录，用ＡＲＭＡ（ｐ，ｑ）模型检验了青藏高原积雪变化趋势，结果表明，高原积雪变化呈普遍增加趋势，与南极大陆及格陵兰冰盖表面雪积累率的增加相一致。青藏高原气温与降水的变化趋势也是增加的，积雪与冬季气温之间存在着负相关关系，而与冷季降水呈显著正相关。积雪的增加是由冷季降水的增加所引起的。
In this paper daily snow depth data, together with monthly average temperature and monthly total precipitation, at 60 primary weather stations from 1957 to 1990 were analysed by using ARMA (p,q) and multiple linear regressive analysis. The results show that an increasing trend of snow volume is almost omnipresent over the entire Tibetan Plateau, with some local decreasing trends. Its variation trend coincides with the recent snow accumulation increases in Antarctica and Greenland, therefore, snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau will increase with global warming. The secular trend of cold season temperature and precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau is increasing too. A significant positive correlation exists between snow cover and precipitation, but the correlation between snow cover and temperature is negative over the Tibetan Plateau. In recent 34 years, cold season temperature in the Tibetan Plateau has increased 0.51℃. Meanwhile, the annual increase rate of cold season precipitation is 1.1%, and annual accumulation of snow cover increases 1.7%. The increase of snow cover results from the increase of precipitation during the cold seasons with global warming.
出处
《冰川冻土》
CSCD
北大核心
1997年第4期289-294,共6页
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
关键词
青藏高原
积雪
变化趋势
回归分析
气温
降水
Tibetan Plateau, snow cover, variation trends, global warming, multiple linear regressive analysis
