摘要
基于山东省旅游统计数据,应用线性回归和势分析模型对山东省、山东半岛城市群和胶东半岛各空间旅游入境收入进行统计分析和预测,由于利用势分析方法对各空间旅游收入进行预测时,充分考虑了时变特性,因此,通过误差精度比较发现,势分析方法的预测精度更高。
Based on Shandong tourism statistics data, by using the regression analysis and the potential models, the statistics analysis and forecast of the dong province, Shandong peninsula city clusters and Ji space tourism entry income are given for Shaniaodong peninsula. The space tourism income is predicted by using potential analysis methods, and we give full consideration to the time - varying characteristics. Therefore, by observing accuracy of error, we find the prediction accuracy of the potential analysis method is more precise.
出处
《山东工商学院学报》
2008年第5期40-43,共4页
Journal of Shandong Technology and Business University
基金
山东省软科学计划项目(B2006069)
关键词
旅游
收入预测
势分析模型
tourism
income forecast
potential analysis model
