摘要
针对研发项目中最为关键的技术风险量化难题,为确保该类项目目标的成功实现,研究并提出了技术风险事件量化指标的体系结构、等级标准和量化方法,建立了基于风险事件发生可能性、后果影响和可控性的多级递阶层状结构的技术风险三参数量化模型,并应用该模型对某研发项目进行了案例分析与验证,从而得到了解决技术风险量化难题的理想模型与有效方法.该模型综合考虑技术风险的评价与应对,引入可控性指标,并提出了基于技术创新TRIZ理论的可控性量化方法.该结论有助于准确把握项目的技术风险状态,也从理论与实践上促进了技术风险管理决策的科学化.
Technical risk quantification of R＆D project is a pivotal difficult problem. In order to lead to objective of this kind project, the paper have studied and brought forward the system construction,grade standard and quantification method of technical risk indexes, established the technical risk quantification model of three- parameter（probability consequence and solubility） with many stratums rank construction. According to the model, a certain equipment R＆D project is analyzed and validated and get an effective way of solving technical risk quantity problem. This model colligates the value and solution of technical risk, introduces the solubility, brings forward the quantity way of solubility based on technique innovation TRIZ theory. The conclusion helps to hold the technical risk state accurately and promotes decision-making of technical risk management scientifically.
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第10期131-137,共7页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
关键词
研发项目
技术风险
三参数
量化模型
R＆D project
technical risk
three-parameter
quantification model
