摘要
本文运用系统动力学方法,预测并分析了不同情景下上海未来住宅建筑的能源需求,指出上海未来住宅建筑能耗的增长是必然的,通过制定合理的政策鼓励企业技术进步并引导用户的消费行为,可以减缓能耗的增长速度。同时指出,到2020年,上海住宅建筑的耗电水平仍低于《夏热冬冷地区居住建筑节能设计标准》(JGJ 134-2001)中的限值。
In this paper, future energy demand of residential buildings in Shanghai with system dynamics was forecasted and analyzed,it was pointed out that its growth was inevitable and the rate of increase of energy consumption would be slowed down by rational policies to encourage enterprise technological progress and guide users＇ behavior. Meanwhile, it was concluded that power consumption of Shanghai residential buildings would be still less than the limits of ＂Residential Building Energy-saving Design Standards of Hot Summer and Cold Winter Region＂ （JGJ 134-2001 ） by 2020.
出处
《建筑科学》
北大核心
2008年第10期11-15,109,共6页
Building Science
关键词
住宅建筑
能源需求
系统动力学
情景分析
residential building, energy demand, system dynamics, scenario analysis
