摘要
利用线性分析方法,分析了濮阳多时间尺度气温的变化特征及气候趋暖对粮食生产的影响,结果表明:冬、夏季和年平均气温变化幅度分别为0.23~0.46℃/10 a、-0.05^-0.11℃/10 a和0.14℃/10 a;年高、低温日数分别以3.36天/10 a和2.35天/10 a的趋势减少;日平均气温稳定通过0℃的初日提前4.91天/10 a、终日推后1.02天/10 a,日平均气温稳定通过20℃的终日延长2.0天/10 a;1987年以来濮阳相继出现17个暖冬,严重暖冬年份皆出现在1995年以后。当地引种的小麦品种冬性减弱,播种期推后,越冬期缩短,生育期延长。病虫害有加重趋势,农药、化肥用量增加。因此,当地气候变化具有冬趋暖夏趋凉的特征,高低温危害减少,积温的有效性增加,作物生长期与灌浆期延长;自20世纪90年代中期以来,异常暖冬事件增多,近10年是50年以来最暖的10年。同时冬季平均气温年际间波幅增大,春季气温不稳定,气温变化的不确定性增加。气候变暖对当地粮食生产有利因素较多,但不利因素也很突出。
By utilizing linear analysis method, the features of temperature changing in various time scales and the effect of warming-up climate on grain production in Puyang are analyzed. The results are as follows： the floating temperature change ranges of winter and summer and annual average are 0.23 - 0.46 ℃/10a, - 0.05 - 0. 11℃/10a and 0.14℃/10a respectively ; annual high and low temperature days decrease with 3.36 days per decade and 2.35 days per decade ; the first day, daily mean temperature is above 0℃ , is 4.91d/10a in advance, while the last day is 1.02 d/10a later, and the last day, daily mean temperature is above 20 ℃ , postpones 2. 0d/10a; in Puyang there have been 17 warm winters since 1987, with all the typical ones after 1995. The winter nature of local wheat decreases, with posterior sowing time, shorter winter period and longer growing period. Plant diseases and insect pests tend to be more serious and greater amount of agricultural chemical and fertilizer have to be applied. Results show that the local climate is changing with the tendency of warmer winter and cooler summer, the damage done by high or low temperature decreases, the efficiency of accumulating temperature increases and plants obtain a longer growing and milking period; ever since the mid - 1990s, more events of unusual warm winter happen and the last ten years are the warmest during the past 50 years. Meanwhile, the average yearly temperature in winter is changing with larger amplitude, while the temperature in spring tends to be poor in stability, that is to say the uncertainty of temperature change increases. Although there are more advantages for the local grain production in warmer climate, disadvantages stand out at the same time.
出处
《气象与环境科学》
2008年第B09期146-150,共5页
Meteorological and Environmental Sciences
关键词
气候倾向率
暖冬
极端气温
界限温度
粮食生产
climate tendency rate
warm winter
extreme temperature
limited temperature
grain production
