摘要
针对各部门在应急与日常状态下的责任存在不一致的问题,因而导致在应急过程中无法有效进行责任转换,影响应急工作开展,借鉴遥感影像分类精度评价中常用的混淆矩阵方法,通过确定标准任务、应急责任矩阵、日常相关责任、责任一致性原则等步骤,建立了应急预案混淆矩阵。笔者以2007年《××市雪天道路交通保障应急预案》为例,对应急预案在应急与日常状态下的责任一致性进行了分析。结果表明,各部门以及应急预案整体的混淆矩阵,能够直观而定性地反映应急预案的责任一致性;对混淆矩阵责任一致性指数p的计算,可进一步定量化地评价应急预案。定性与定量相结合的方法是全面分析和评价应急预案所必需的手段,同时可以为应急预案的责任配置调整提供依据。
Due to different responsibilities in ordinary state and emergency state, some governmental departments cant make a conversion of their roles according to emergency response plan in the rescue actions. To solve this problem, the confusion matrix method is introduced, which is effectively used in accuracy assessment of remotely sensed image classification. Through a series of steps such as defining standard task, emergency responsibility matrix, routine related responsibilities and responsibility consistency principles, the confusion matrix of emergency plan is established. Taking an emergency response plan for road traffic safeguard in snow disaster as case study, the consistency of responsibility under emergency and ordinary state is analyzed. It shows that the confusion matrix for each department and the entire emergency plan can straightly and qualitatively reflect the consistency of responsibility. The index P, used to indicate the responsibility consistency of confusion matrix, can further quantitatively assess the emergency plan. This method combining quantification with qualification is a necessary approach to fully analyze and assess emergency plan, and also provides basis for the adjustment of responsibility allocation in emergency plan.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
2008年第8期156-163,共8页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
科技部"十一五"科技支撑计划项目(2006BAK01A07和2006BAJ10B00)
关键词
突发事件
应急预案
责任矩阵
混淆矩阵
一致性
emergency
emergency response plan
responsibility matrix
confusion matrix
consistency
