摘要
求出了Keyfitz模型和Rogers模型的理论解,并以Rogers模型为例,对人口迁移模型进行了改进,使之适用范围更广.在人口迁移模型的基础上,建立了系统动力学模型,并对江西省的人口迁移问题进行了仿真预测,模拟出了江西省农村人口、城镇人口及城市化率的变化趋势.
It gets the theory solution to the Keyfitz model and the Rogers model. Furthermore, it takes the Rogers model as an example, improves the population migration model and expands its applicable scope. Based on the population migration model, the system dynamics model is established, simulation to the population migration issue of Jiangxi Province is carried on, the tendency of the rural population, the urban population and the urbanization rate in Jiangxi Province is obtained.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第18期128-133,共6页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家自然科学基金:江西农村规模养殖能源生态研究(70761004)
关键词
人口迁移模型
系统动力学
仿真预测
population migration model
system dynamics
simulation forecast
