摘要
根据灰色灾变预测原理,构建了基于GM(1,1)与线性回归的组合模型.对于具有数据跳变日期点的预测问题,用GM(1,1)模型;对非跳变日期点用线性回归预测.对河南省国内生产总值的预测结果表明,该模型克服了GM(1,1)模型和线性回归模型的缺陷,具有较高的应用价值.
Based on the principle of grey disaster, this paper constructs the combined model of GM （ 1,1 ） with linear regression. We make use of GM （ 1,1 ） to forecast the possible aberrant date points in the future under aberrant data, and for other normal points, linear regression functions are used. Results of applying the new method to the prediction of the Gross Domestic Production in Henan province shows that the new method can achieve better forecasting results compared with other forecasting models, can make up for some deficiencies in GM （1,1） model and linear regression to some degree, and has higher practical value of application.
出处
《河南农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第4期469-472,共4页
Journal of Henan Agricultural University
基金
国家自然科学基金(70473037)
河南省软科学研究项目(072400420650)
