摘要
制造业是一个国家和地区经济发展的基石。改革开放30年来,山东省制造业发展迅速,并带动了制造业人力资源队伍的加速增长。要实现山东省从"制造业大省"到"制造业强省"、从"制造"到"创造"的跨越,人力资源的支持必不可少。分析改革开放30年来山东省制造业人力资源队伍建设取得的成绩及存在的问题,基于灰色理论对山东省制造业未来5年的人力资源需求进行预测,并运用残差检验、关联度检验和后验差检验进行模型检验,保证了预测结论的可靠性。预测结果表明:山东省政府的"承接日韩制造业转移,建设制造业强省"的政策支持使得山东省制造业人力资源需求总量保持增长态势。这一结论对山东省政府构建制造业的产业战略和人才发展战略将起到一定的借鉴意义。
Manufacturing industry is the foundamention of a nation＇s economic deveopment,the manufacturing industry of Shandong province gets a rapid development ＂after the reform and open policy has been practiced for 30 years, which also promotes the number of human resources.It is essential for the supply support of human resources in order to jump from industrial province to stronger manufacture industry. The article analyzes both achievements and problems in the team development of human resources after 30 years＇ development, forcasts the future demand of human resources of manufacturing industry in Shandong province based on the grey theory, and has a test with three methods. This article finds out that the human resources demand will keep increasing in order to fit with the development of Shandong manufacturing industry. The conclusion can help to build up the strategy of manufacturing industry and human resources of Shandong province.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
2008年第5期185-188,共4页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
山东省软科学计划项目“山东制造业强省人才战略研究”(A200628)的研究成果
关键词
制造业
人力资源
灰色预测
manufacturing industry
human resources
grey forcast
