摘要
自20世纪80年代,随着经济和社会的飞速发展,中国北方缺水问题越来越严重。南水北调是解决京津华北地区缺水的重要措施,南水北调中线工程近期从长江支流汉江上的丹江口水库引水进京。丹江口水力发电站发电量因此势必减少。为降低发电减少损失,增加可调水量,汉江集团计划在丹江口水库上游兴建4座水电站。采用"随机双动态规划模型(SDDP)",以调水量为限制条件,以下泄流量为决策变量,寻求汉江中上游水库群发电效益最大化。模型根据已有数据人工生成30个水文系列,模型运行时间步长为月,总周期跨度为5 a。为分析不同水资源发展阶段的不同水配置政策,拟定了4套分析方案。研究结果表明,SDDP模型可用于优化水力发电。根据方案3和方案4,每年可分别调水120亿m3和97亿m3,总发电量将分别减少26.2%和19.7%,且两方案都能满足调水需求量。模拟结果显示上游水库增加了调水弹性,使得调水更加可靠。
Since 1980＇s, along with the rapid economic and social development, the contradiction of water shortage in North China becomes more and more serious. The Middle Route Project （MRP） of South-to-North Water Diversion is being constructed to divert water from Danjiangkou Reservoir on the Hanjiang River to Beijing City..As a result, the annual energy production of Danjiangkou Hydropower Station will be reduced. Therefore, four hydropower stations will be built upstream in order to compensate the reduction in hydropower generation due to MRP and also ensure the availability of water for diversion. Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming （SDDP） is implemented to maximize the total net benefits of hydropower production, with discharged flow as decision variables and the water diversion as a constraint. The hydropower system is simulated with 30 hydrological sequences, which are artificially generated because of the limited historical data （ 16 years）. The simulation is performed with monthly time step over a planning horizon of 5 years. The performance of the system is analyzed for four development scenarios. The case study demonstrates that the SDDP model can be used to optimize the hydropower production. According to scenario 3 and senario 4, 12 km^3/a and 9.7 km^3/a of water will be diverted, and the MRP of water diversion will reduce the hydropower generation by 26.2% and 19.7% respectively, whereas water diversion demand can be satisfied in both scenarios. The simulation results reveal that the upstream reservoirs increase the flexibility of water diversion and make it more reliable.
出处
《水利水电快报》
2008年第8期33-38,共6页
Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information
关键词
水电站
水库调度
动态规划
丹江口水利枢纽
南水北调工程
hydropower station
reservoir operation
Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming （SDDP）
jiangkou Hydropower Station
South-to-North Water Diversion Project
