摘要
随着世界经济一体化和经济全球化的不断推进,对外开放与一国或地区的经济发展的关系日益密切。根据山东省1985—2006年的有关数据,从定量的角度,采用回归分析方法、协整分析技术和格兰杰因果检验方法,实证研究了山东省对外开放与经济增长之间的关系。实证结果表明,山东省GDP增长、出口总额和外商直接投资三者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,经济增长与出口总额增长互为格兰杰原因,经济增长是实际利用外资额增长的格兰杰原因,但实际利用外资额增长不是经济增长的格兰杰原因。依据分析结论,提出了促进山东省对外开放与经济互动发展的建议。
With the integration and globalization of the world economy, the relationship between the opening-up and economic growth is becoming closer day by day. Based on the relevant data of Shandong province from 1985 to 2006,this relationship is analyzed in Shandong province from a qualitative in perspective in this paper,with approaches of regression analysis,co-integration technique and Granger-causality test. It is found in result that there is a long-term,stable,balance among FDI,export and GDP. FDI growth is not Granger reasons for GDP growth,however,GDP growth is Granger reason for FDI growth. Export growth and GDP growth is Granger reason for each other. According to the conclusions of the analysis homologous policy advice is also proposed in this paper.
出处
《滨州学院学报》
2008年第4期51-56,共6页
Journal of Binzhou University
关键词
山东省
经济增长
回归分析
协整检验
格兰杰原因
Shandong Province
economic growth
regression analysis
Co-integration test
Granger causality relationship
