摘要
燕山地震活动具有可公度性,M≥6地震可公度周期约50年,M≥5地震可公度周期约3.78年。本文分析了燕山带M≥5地震可公度性活动特点及其与太阳黑子活动、郯庐北带M≥5地震活动的相关性,根据可公度性特点建立了燕山带地震的可公度性预测公式。对1976年唐山7.8级地震检验表明,公式具有较强稳定性和较高预测精度,可用于预测。文中提出了对燕山带潜在5—6级地震的预测,可供地震监测预报参考。
This paper discusses the seismic commensurability in the Yaushau seismic zone and the results show that the commensurable period for the earthquakes (M≥6) is 50 years aud that for the earthquakes (M≥5) is 3. 18 years ·The correlatiou of the charaeteristes of the commensurable for the earthqua kes (M≥5)in the Yaushau belt to sunspot activity and the seismic activity(M≥5) in the northern part of Tanlu fault is analysed and a formula for forecasting the commensurability of the earthquakes in Yanshan belt is developed based on the commensurability characteristcs. A check for the 197b 7.8 earthquake indicates that the formula is good in stabilty and has a relative high forecasting precision,which can be used in forecasting of seismic commensurability. In this paper, the forecasting of the potential earthquakes (6>M≥5)is presented, which can be used as a reference in earthquake mon toting and prediction.
出处
《华北地震科学》
北大核心
1990年第2期24-30,共7页
North China Earthquake Sciences
