摘要
目的分析和比较我国湖区和山区以县为单位的人群血吸虫感染血清学阳性率时空分布格局。方法采用贝叶斯时空模型,对2002-2005年全国以县为单位的血吸虫病年报资料中血清学检查数据、中分辨率成像光谱辐射计(MODIS)数据、归一化植被指数(NDVI)、地表温度(LST)和土地覆盖类型以及经济水平指标进行分析。结果在湖区,人群血吸虫血清学阳性率与7～8月NDVI均值、水体比例和草地等比例呈正相关(回归系数分别为0.650、0.662和0.832);在山区,人群血吸虫血清学阳性率与1～2月NDVI均值和草地等比例呈正相关(回归系数分别为2.631和0.400),与7￣8月NDVI均值呈负相关(回归系数为-0.288)。湖区人群血吸虫血清学阳性率每年空间相关系数位于0.868～0.945之间,山区的多数年份无统计学意义。结论在湖区和山区,自然环境因素对血吸虫病的影响有所不同;湖区人群血吸虫血清学阳性率存在很强的空间相关性且每年略有差异,而山区的空间相关性不强。
Objective To analyze and compare the spatio-temporal structure and risk factors of county-level seroprevalence of Schistosoma japonicum infection in lake and mountainous regions. Methods Bayesian spatio-temporal models were used to analyze the county-level data from serological tests, which was part of the annual reports on S. japonicum infection in China from 2002 to 2005; also used were normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI）, land surface temperature （LST）, land use type from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS）, and the index of economic level. Results The seroprevalence was positively associated with the mean of LST from July to August, the proportion of water body and that of grassland in lake region （regression coefficient： 0.650, 0.662 and 0.832, respectively）, while in mountainous region, the seroprevalence was positively associated with the mean of LST from January to February and the proportion of grassland （regression coefficient： 2.631 and 0.400, respectively）, and negatively associated with the mean of LST from July to August （regression coefficient： -0.288）. The spatial correlation coefficients ranged from 0.868 to 0.945 for lake region while they were not significant for most years in mountainous region. Conclusion The impact of environmental factors on seroprevalence of S. japonicum infection varies in different regions. Seroprevalence presents a strong spatial correlation in lake region with certain yearly variability, but such spatial correlation is weak in mountainous region.
出处
《中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第4期290-294,298,共6页
Chinese Journal of Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases
基金
国家自然科学基金重大项目(No.30590373)
联合国儿童基金会/联合国开发署/世界银行/世界卫生组织热带病研究与培训特别规划署资助(No.TDRA30298)~~
关键词
贝叶斯统计
日本血吸虫
时空分布
血清学阳性率
Bayesian statistics
Schistosoma japonicum
Spatio-temporal distribution
Seroprevalence
