摘要
当前，我国奶业经过连续多年高速增长后，正处于转型的关键时期。因此，深入分析我国奶业的发展形势，把握其正确的发展方向，事关整个奶业产业的生存与发展。
<Abract>Review of China dairy industry In recent years, China has achieved fast development of milk-cow breeding and dairy industry. The raw milk yield increased remarkably in the last ten year, particularly after 2000. The number of milk cow increased from 2.69 million in 1990 to 4.89 million in 2000. In 2007, the number reached 14.7 million. The average annual incremental rate from 1990 to 2000 was 6.4%. During the 7 years from 2000 to 2007, the rate achieved 17%. In 2007, China total output of dairy was 36.5 million tons; 27.6 Kg per capita. In 1990, milk yield was 4.16 million tons which dramatically increased to 31.93 million tons in 2006. In 2007, the figure is estimated 3650. According to the statistic of relevant department, the number of non national enterprises which sale amount is above 5,000,000 RMB grew from 377 in 2000 to 717 in 2006. Meanwhile, their total sales revenue increased from 19.3b to 104. Ib RMB and their total output of dairy products increased from 2.17 million tons to 14.6 million tons. In 2007, facing up to the pressure from domestic and international market, China dairy industry did not slow down in the developing path. The output of dairy achieved 17.87 million tons, increased by 22% compared to 2006. In 2008, the output still keeps growing but the speed of raising is relatively slower than before. In the first five months of 2008, the output was approximately 7.49 million tons including liquid milk products 6.09 million tons. The dairy consumption keeps increasing with the pace of dairy industry developing, but generally falls behind the world. The disparity between urban and rural consumption is shrinking. In 1995, urban consumption was 7.33 Kg per capita which climbed to 25.07 in 2003, but in 2006, the number only increased to 25.54 Kg. Meanwhile, the rural consumption kept substantially increasing and achieved 13. 53 Kg. The disparity between urban and rural consumption was enlarging from 1995 to 2003, and then shrinking. In 2007, the urban dairy consumption fell down to 24.87 Kg, due to price rise. Trend of China dairy industry During the first half of 2007, dairy enterprises did not offer farmers reasonable price of raw milk, under he pressure of increasing cost, some farmers had to slaughter cows due to shrinking profits; while in the last half of 2007, the dairy manufacturers were trapped into furious competition of raw milk. In 2008, the situation is reappearing. The raw milk price fluctuates greatly,and keeps falling from April. How to balance the benefits between farmers and manufacturers? The dairy industry calls for development achieved by quality and effi-ciency enhancing instead of quantity increasing. With the consumption concept changing, diversity and premium have better market perform, such as Mengniu Deluxe. In 2006, China urban consumption of yoghurt prod-ucts was about 3.79 Kg, in-creased by 14.9% compared to the last year, while fresh milk only increased by 2.0%, and milk powder consumption de-creased by 4.2%. The impact of international dairy market on China dairy industry Since 2007, global dairy market has kept sustained upward shift in prices. China dairy are unavoidably affected. During Jan-Aug. 2007, the price of imported dairy rose 39.8% averagely. And in domestic market 2007, the dairy price also increased by 6.42% compared to 2006. Because of the global shortage of dairy products, China dairy manufacturers have to turn to domestic raw milk supply that leads to competition in raw milk. Even if sale amount is increasing greatly, the profit increase is still limited. In 2006, China dairy import and export were 34.78 and 7.49 million tons respectively. Net import was 27.30 million tons. In 2007, due to the shortage of dairy in global market, the import fell to 27.59 million tons while export kept growing. In addition, because of the vast market potential, many dairy multinationals target at China. That brings both opportu-nities and challenges. The strategies of developing China dairy industry First of all, the current developing model has to change. The quality of raw milk should be enhanced by improving breeding method. Also, developing the harmonious rela-tionship between raw milk producers and dairy manufactur-ers is very crucial. Secondly, we should extend the dairy market by vari-ous means, like consumer education, promoting school milk project, encouraging enterprises to develop new prod-ucts to meet diverse demands, improving dairy logistic system and etc. Also, technology development and policy support are necessary to promote sustainable development of China dairy industry in long term.
出处
《中国食品工业》
2008年第8期12-14,共3页
China Food Industry
