摘要
流域水资源调度系统是一个具有复杂结构的开放巨系统,具有高阶次、多变量、多回路和强非线性的反馈结构,系统行为往往具有反直观的特性。运用系统动力学理论与方法建立流域水资源调度系统模型较传统的数学模型更能充分刻画系统的非线性结构和动态特征。本文以渭河流域关中地区为例,在深入分析系统内外因素及其反馈关系的基础上,运用系统动力学(SD)构建渭河流域关中地区水资源调度系统模型,以模型为基础,建立了渭河流域水资源调度的5种方案,即规划调度方案、经济优先发展方案、生态保护调度方案、需水量调度方案和缺水量动态调度方案,并采用VensimPLE软件进行系统仿真,获取2020年末5种调度方案的仿真结果。从经济效益、社会效益和生态效益3方面出发选取6组评价指标对各方案的仿真结果进行灰色系统综合评价,结果显示:缺水量动态调度方案是渭河流域关中地区水资源调度的最佳方案(R=0.589),进而提出对现有水资源规划调度方案的优化措施。
A water resource regulation system is a large open system with a complex high-order, multi- variable, multi-loop and nonlinear feedback structure. The behavior of the system is typically contrary to the internal characteristics of the system. Applying system dynamics methods to establish models of water resource allocation can simulate the system＇s nonlinear structure and dynamic character more accurately than traditional mathematical models. We use the Guanzhong area in Weihe River Basin as a case study. First, the factors affecting water resources distribution in Weihe River Basin were analyzed. Then, we built a model system using a system dynamics （SD） approach. Based on the system structure and different water resource distribution coefficients, five different allocation programs （labeled ＇planning＇ , ＇economic prior development＇, ＇ ecological protection＇, ＇ water demand＇ , and ＇ volume of water shortage＇ ） were developed and simulated with Vensim PLE to study the operation of different programs through 2020. In order to assess and compare the different simulation results, we used gray system comprehensive assessment methods and chose six indexes incorporating ecological, economic and social aspects. This method of assessment was used to select the optimal distribution scheme, which is the ＇ volume of water shortage＇ program （RE = 0.589）. It takes both economic development and environmental protection into account, with obvious economic and ecological benefits （ lE （ 1 ） = 0.718, lE （4） = 0. 846）. It is not the best program according to either economic development or ecological protection individually （lB （1） = 1.000, lC （3） = 1.000）, but it is the best choice for balancing the two in a sustainable development approach, and can improve the benefits of water utilization in the Weihe River Basin （lE （3） = 1.000）. In order to effectively resolve water shortage problems and coordinate water systems and socioeconomic systems in the Weihe River Basin, there should be increased water diversion from other zones, and the current distribution system needs to be optimized and adjusted. Taking into consideration all factors affecting water supply and demand, the ＇volume of water shortage＇ plan for the Guanzhong area urgently needs to be established, as it would improve marginal efficiency of water resources in all subsystems and maximize the total utilization efficiency of water resources. Only by doing so can the scarce water resources in the Guanzhong area be fully utilized. The challenges of application of SD to a water resources distribution system were analyzed, with two particularly apparent problems. First, there are contradictions between the evolutionary characteristics of the system structure and the invariant features of the SD model. Another problem is that accuracy of the mathematical relationships among the variables will decline with increasingly long time periods. The solutions to these problems need further research.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第7期983-989,共7页
Resources Science
基金
高等学校博士点科研基金项目:“流域PRED系统及其时空协同研究”(编号:20060697004)
