摘要
为探讨空气污染对人群呼吸道健康的影响,调查了2002-2005年山东大学历城区空气质量状况及医院每日呼吸道疾病门诊量,采用时间序列方法的非参数广义相加模型（GAM）,在控制门诊量变化的长期趋势、“星期几效应”、气象因素等混杂因素的基础上,分析了空气污染对呼吸道疾病日门诊量影响的最佳滞后时间及暴露-反应关系.结果表明,空气污染对呼吸道疾病日门诊量有影响.单污染物模型中,PM10和NO2分别滞后0d和3d及SO2滞后0-3d的移动平均值对人群呼吸道健康的影响具有统计学意义.PM10、SO2和NO2日均浓度增加10μg/m^3,呼吸道疾病日门诊相对危险度分别为1.004,1.015,1.008.女性比男性对空气污染更为敏感.
To evaluate the acute health effects of air pollution exposure, data for daily air quality and hospital visits for respiratory symptoms in the Licheng district of Jinan were collected from 2002 to 2005. After controlling for long term trends, the ＂day of the week＂effect and confounding meteorological factors, a non-parametric generalized additive model （GAM） was adopted to analyze best fit lag days and the exposure-response relationship. Pollutants including PM10, SO2 and NO2 all have positive relationships with residents’ hospital visits for respiratory complaints. In single-pollutant models, the best fits for PM10 and NO2 were same day visit （lag0） and three days after （lag3）, while a four day moving average （avg03） was most suitable for SO2. Particulate matter （PM10）, SO2 and NO2 were associated with increased likelihood of hospital visits with every 10 μg/m^3 increase of pollutant concentration. Relative risk （RR） was 1.004 for PM10, 1.015 for SO2, and 1.008 for NO2. Females were more susceptible than males to air pollution.
出处
《中国环境科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第6期571-576,共6页
China Environmental Science
基金
山东省自然科学基金资助项目(Y2005E01)
