摘要
人民币升值的真正原因在于,从对外经济往来层面上来看,美国在贸易逆差扩大背景下对中国愈演愈烈的人民币升值的"攻势";从国内宏观经济层面来看,"外汇占款"带来流动性过剩压力。宏观经济的客观因素以及中国政府的主观因素决定了人民币汇率升值过程只能是渐进的,而不是一步到位的,尽管渐进策略会进一步强化人民币升值的预期。对不同经济主体而言,人民币升值的利益效应不同,因此很难简单概括其总体效应。近期来看,人民币汇率升幅已经达到了一定的水平,与人民币升值相关的越来越强烈的负面效应以及金融突发事件效应,应该引起政府的密切关注。
The real reason for the increase in the value of the RMB, from the perspective of the level of the external economy, is the ＂offensive challenge＂ presented by the dramatic rise in the value of the RMB against the backdrop of the growing trade deficit with the US. From the perspective of the domestic macroeconomic level, the RMB counterpart of foreign exchange reserves held by China has resulted in pressure from excess liquidity at the macroeconomic level. The fact that the process of increasing the value of the RMB can only be gradual is determined by objective macroeconomic factors and subjective factors of the Chinese government, though the tactic of gradually increasing the value of the RMB tends to increase expectations of increase in the value. The beneficial effects of the increased value of the RMB are different for different sectors of the economy, making it hard to make a simple summary of the overall effect. Now that the margin of increase in the value of the RMB has recently reached a certain level, the increasingly stronger negative effects of the increased value and the effects of financial emergencies that have resulted from the increased value should attract the close attention of the Chinese government.
出处
《广东金融学院学报》
CSSCI
2008年第3期48-57,共10页
Journal of Guangdong University of Finance
关键词
人民币升值
世界经济失衡
“渐进”模式
货币升值效应
Appreciation of the RMB, Imbalance in the Global Economy, ＂Gradual Increase＂ Model, the Effect of the Increase in the Value of Currency
