摘要
水电工程一般具有规模大、投资大的特点,一旦发生风险,造成的经济损失往往很大,因此,对风险的前期评估就显得尤为重要。在分析水电工程投资(费用)和效益构成的基础上,研究了水电工程投资风险变量之间的影响关系。以我国西南地区某水电工程为背景,结合专家经验对该工程进行风险因素辨识,在综合考虑总成本费用及税收等因素的基础上,运用模拟技术,将水电工程投资风险与财务指标相结合,对工程投资风险及其指标进行分析评价,进而为项目的科学决策提供依据。
Preestimate of hydropower project investment risks is of much importance because of the huge economic loss caused by the negative effects of the risk factors.The structure of hydropower project investment and benefits is analyzed.Components of cash flow of hydropower project investment and finance evaluation are presented to study the effect of investment risk variables on hydropower project.Taking a hydropower station of the Southwest of China for example, we distinguish the risk factors of the station with expert experience.By considering the cost and tax of the project, by the simulation technique, which combines hydropower project investment risk and finance index, the project investment risk and indices are evaluated, which provides a basis for scientific decision-making of the project.
出处
《天津大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2008年第3期228-233,共6页
Journal of Tianjin University：Social Sciences
关键词
水电工程
风险因素
投资风险分析
蒙特卡罗方法
模拟
hydropowerproject
risk factor
investment risk analysis
Monte-Carlo method
simulation
