摘要
传统GM(1,1)模型实质上是用指数规律来模拟原始序列的变化,因此需要对原始数据序列的累加生成序列进行准指数规律的检验。但对本身已具有准指数规律的原始序列进行累加生成不但不能提高预测精度,反而会增加数据的灰度,影响预测效果。针对传统GM(1,1)模型的这一缺陷,GM(1,1)改进模型根据最小二乘法原理对本身已具有准指数规律的原始序列直接建立模型,克服了传统GM(1,1)模型在建模过程中的盲目性;并在产油量预测中获得了较高的模拟精度,使平均相对误差由5.6%下降至3.8%。较理想的预测效果也验证了GM(1,1)改进模型的正确性和有效性,从而为提高GM(1,1)模型的预测精度提供了一条新的途径。
The essence of the original GM(1,1)model is to simulate the change of the original data sequence with the index law.So it is necessary to verify the quasi-index law of the 1-AGO data sequence.But generating the 1-AGO data sequence of the original data sequence with the quasi-index law would not get higher precision and even become worse.The uncertainty degree of the data could be increased and the forecasting result could be affected.Regarding the limitation of the original GM(1,1)model,the modified GM(1,1)model is directly established with original data sequence possessing quasi-lndex law and according to the least square method,which overcomes the blindness of the original GM(1,1)model.The modified GM(1,1)model can improve the simulation precision and forecasting precision,making average relative error reduce from 5,6%to 3,8%,The correction and effectiveness of the modified GM(1,1)model have been verified,which can provide a new way for improving forecasting precision.
作者
田敏
赵永军
颛孙鹏程
Tian Min;Zhao Yongjun;Zhuansun Pengcheng(College of Geo-Resources and Information,China University of Petroleum,Dongying 257061,China;不详)
出处
《断块油气田》
CAS
2008年第2期61-63,共3页
Fault-Block Oil & Gas Field
关键词
传统模型
累加序列
准指数规律
改进模型
original GM(1,1)model
1-AGO data sequence
quasi-index law
modified GM(1,1)model
