摘要
居民生活用气量指标是确定居民生活年用气量的基本参数,受经济发展、家庭人口、文化等多方面因素的影响。由于对这些复杂的影响关系缺乏足够的认识,导致用气量指标的确定十分困难,用气量指标预测缺乏依据。为此,采用计量经济理论分析居民用气相关数据,建立居民生活用气量指标与影响因素之间的量化模型,可以有效地评估居民生活用气量指标现状及预测用气量指标未来状况。利用上海居民用气调查数据,经过模型的经典回归假定检验及处理,得到上海居民生活用气量指标模型。通过模型计算求得2006年上海居民生活用气量指标,并对2010年、2015年上海居民生活用气量指标进行了预测,为上海在未来一定阶段内进行燃气工程设计、远期规划提供了依据。
Domestic gas index is a basic index for determining the annual amount of gas consumed by households,which is restricted by many different factors including economic development,demography,and culture,etc.For lack of this knowledge,not only will it be difficult to confirm the domestic gas consumption index but also the forecast will be inaccessible.Therefore,this study applied the econometrics to analyze on the relevant data collected from city gas users,then built up an econometric analysis model on a relationship between domestic gas consumption index and various influencing factors.With this model,both the status quo and future forecast of city gas users could be well assessed.By use of survey data from city gas users in Shanghai,this model was regressed,verified and dealt with to obtain a typical domestic gas index model on Shanghai city gas users.By this model,the domestic gas consumed in 2006 in Shanghai was calculated out and that in 2010 and in 2015 respectively were also predicted as well,which would provide references for city planners to have city gas engineering design and long-term planning within a certain time in near future in Shanghai.
出处
《天然气工业》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第1期143-145,共3页
Natural Gas Industry
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:50376014)
哈尔滨工业大学校基金(编号:HIT-2002-65)
上海市燃气管理处资助(编号:20030620)
关键词
城市燃气
民用气
需求量
指标
数学模型
评价
预测
上海市
city gas,index of domestic gas,demand,index,mathematical model,evaluation,forecast,Shanghai
