摘要
随着全球气候变暖,气候的变异性变得越来越极端,极端天气事件的频率和强度也在不断地上升.气候变化改变了水文循环,其变化趋势对世界水资源的管理提出了严峻的考验.气候变化对寒区水循环的影响包括对降水、蒸散发、径流、降雪与积雪面积、冰川和冻土等方面的影响:近百年来,全球降水在波动中略有增加;在北半球水面蒸发量呈逐步减少的趋势,径流量及其时空分布发生了巨大变化;全球以积雪形式的降水越来越少,且积雪面积越来越小;冰川出现加速退缩的现象.随着全球变暖,多年冻土融化,导致活动层厚度有明显增大趋势.所有现存的模型都表明了一个更暖的未来世界.为降低地球各圈层系统对气候变化的脆弱性,需要控制温室气体的排放,建立更精确的气候预测模型,提高水资源管理者的技术水平等手段来提高系统的适应能力,以解决人类的水资源需求问题.
The statistics indicate that the climate variation becomes more and more extreme, the frequency and intensity of the extreme weather events are ceaselessly rising. The annual record of the extreme climate events is broken unceasingly. This has led to enormous economic loss and casualties all over the world. The climatic changes the water rules, and its changing tendency is a litmus test to the world water resources managers. This article mainly elaborated the impact of climatic change on precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, snow and snow cover area, glacier and frozen soil. In recent 100 years, the global precipitation has increased slightly in the undulation sketchy; In Northern Hemisphere, the pan transpiration has assumed gradually reducing tendency; The runoff timing and distribution have changed greatly; The precipitation in form of snow and the snow cover area are more and more few; It is well documented that glaciers are in retreat over most of the world; Besides, with the global warming, permafrost starts to melt, the thickness of the active layer has increased obviously. All extant models have indicated a warmer future world, in order to reduce the vulnerability of the system to the climate change and solve human water resource demands, we can enhance the system adaptability by means of controlling the greenhouse gas emissions, establishing more precise climate forecast models, improving the water resource managers＇ technical levels etc.
出处
《冰川冻土》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第1期72-80,共9页
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2007CB411507)
国家自然科学基金项目(40771047)
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-127)资助
关键词
全球变暖
水资源
极端天气气候事件
脆弱性
global warming
water resource
extreme weather events
vulnerability
