摘要
从人口、国民经济、农业经济、生产技术及政策角度分析了中国及世界上一些典型国家化肥消费和这些因素的关系。从化肥消费强度和消费系数角度深入分析了各个国家发展的特点。结果表明世界主要国家化肥消费都随人口增长速率的增加而增长,反映出人民基本粮食和营养需求对化肥需求具有促进作用。同时随着国民经济发展,化肥应用领域已经扩展到化工、渔业、林业、牧业等多个领域,我国传统农田使用比例已下降到85%。各个国家农业经济发展中的化肥养分资源利用效率差异巨大,发达国家已走上集约化可持续发展的道路,每万元农业GDP的化肥消费已降至1t纯养分,而发展中国家尤其是中国的强度仍高于2t纯养分,且磷肥和钾肥的需求还在增长。从弹性系数来看,我国农业经济发展与化肥需求仍呈等比例增长关系,说明农业经济对化肥过度依赖,其原因是技术发展较慢,单位养分的生产力水平和整个国家的养分再利用水平太低。但从欧美的经验来看,中国提高技术水平、转变资源利用效率的空间很大,而且在不长的时期内完全有可能实现,但取决于政策因素的转变。
From the view of population, economy, agricultural efficiency and technology and the policy, the fertilizer consumption of China was evaluated by compared with other countries. The results showed the growth rate of fertilizer consumption and that of population has positive correlation in fifty top countries in last 25 years. That comes into being the basic reason for China to request more fertilizer because it＇s huge population base and quick growth rate. Meanwhile, Chinese people are pursuing a high level life. The animal food consumption per capita increased greatly from 1980 to 2005, such as 3.74 fold increased meat, 6.45 fold increased egg and 14.07 fold increased milk. The growth rate of food - N and food - P has positive relationship with that of fertilizer - N and fertilize - p in China. According to the quick developing economy, more and more social sectors request fertilizer to be raw material, such as some industry. And some new consumers from agriculture show strong intentions to increase production by using fertilizer, such as forestry, grassland, husbandry and cash crops. The total fertilizer consumption of grain crops shared 46 % in 2005 and the other agriculture sectors shared 49 %, finally 5 % of rest was used by industry. The various consumers have spurred more and more fertilizer was produced and consumed. But compare to other countries, China consumed more fertilizer to yield same or less output. Two indexes were established to quantifiably analyze the relationship of fertilizers and agricultural economy. The fertilizer use efficiency has different character in different countries. The fertilizer demand for unit agriculture GDP is decreased to 1 tone nutrients in developed countries, but that is growing to 2 tones in developing countries, especially in China. The growing demand for fertilizer per unit agricultural GDP presents that developing country is going in a ＂ resources relying era＂ 1 percent increased GDP need 1 percent increased fertilizer consumption in China, but less than 1 percent increased fertilizer demand in some developed countries. The great demand for fertilizer input in China resulted from the technology aspect, such as lower productivity and lower nutrient recycling rate. On the other hand, the special status in China is decided by its national systems and policies which encouraged farmer to use more fertilizer by fixing fertilizer price and subsidy fertilizer industry. grain production but less on economic efficiency. By Meanwhile, the government pays more attention on this kind of attitude, the farmers always use fertilizer non- economically. In terms of the history of developed changed in 15 - 20 years. That means the fertilizer demand countries, the situation of China would be would be increased more within next 20 years in order to feed the growing population, and would be decreased after that time by enhanced technology.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第2期213-220,共8页
Resources Science
基金
农业部“948”项目:“土壤养分资源综合管理技术引进与创新”(编号:2006-G60)
关键词
人口
经济
效率
政策
化肥需求
Population
Economy
Efficiency
Policy
Fertilizer demand
