摘要
首先建立了黑龙江垦区九三地区的大豆单产的Logistic模型,通过梯度法得出模型的参数估计值,并对模型进行了分析.其次,再利用逐步回归方法建立了大豆产量与气象因子的逐步回归模型,确定了影响九三地区大豆产量的主要气象因子,最后运用组合预测和最优权数计算的方法,建立了九三地区大豆产量的组合预测模型,进一步提高了模型的精度,这对指导大豆生产具有重要意义.
At first, the Logistic model of soybean yield is established in HeiLongjiang Jiusan area, by Newton method the parameters is solved, by analyzing the model we get more information. Second, stepwise regression model of soybean yield and meteorological factors is established, main meteorological factors that influence soybean yield in Jiusan area are found. In the end, by the combination forecasting and optimumal weight number combination forecasting model is established and precision is recreased. This is very important for guidance soybean produce.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第24期27-32,共6页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
