摘要
采用了DSSAT作物模式和区域气候模式相连接,模拟分析了A2和B2气候变化情景对中国主要地区灌溉水稻产量的影响。气候变化情景采用了IPCC发布的SRES(Special Report on Emissions Scenarios)系列的最新温室气体排放情景,气候情景值采用区域气候模式PRECIS(Provide Regional Climates for Impact Studies)的模拟值。通过研究站点水稻对A2和B2增温梯度敏感性的分析表明:温度增加,水稻产量呈下降趋势,随着温度增加,产量下降幅度增大。且在同一增温水平下,在南方热带地区的昆明和海口,产量下降幅度大于其他站点。A2和B2的产量相对于基准年(1961~1990年)的变化分别为:气候变化对不同站点的年代际水稻平均产量表现了正面或负面的影响(A2情景下为2.3%^-10.2%,B2情景下为4.0%^-13.6%),在某一些站点,水稻高产年和低产年的概率明显增加,产量分布趋于两极化。
This study simulates ands analyzes the impact of climate change on rice yields in Southern China using future （A2 and B2） climate scenarios data from PRECIS （Provide Regional Climates for Impact Studies） regional climate model （RCM） and crop model of irrigated rice flowering duration and yield. CERES-rice is first validated u- sing farm experiments data in typical locations ranging in latitude, longitude, and elevation. The simulated results represent satisfactorily the trend of days to flowering and yields. The outputs of RCM are secondly validated through crop model. The simulated flowering duration and yield with simulated weather data from RCM. Analysis sensitivity of rice yields represents increased alone brings more great than others （middle China B2 compared to the baseline at six rice stations）. Results show 1） there are increased areas. Cumulative probability is used to analyze change of rice yields under A2 and or decreased （ranging 2.3% -10. 2% under A2 scenario and 4.0%-13.6% under B2 scenario in six rice stations）. 2） the probability of high or low yields year is higher than the baseline at some rice stations. Results from the impacts assessments suggest that climate change bring positive or negative impacts on averaged rice yields in various locations of study area, and high frequency being abnormal yields year compared to the baseline in some locations.
出处
《气候与环境研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第5期659-666,共8页
Climatic and Environmental Research
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目40641003
40501049
科技部项目2006GB24160430
2006AA10Z213和2006BAD04B04
中国科学院研究生院院长基金
关键词
A2和B2情景
气候变化
水稻产量
中国南方
SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, impact of climate change, rice yields, Southern China
