摘要
利用多个全球气候模式（GCM）的情景模拟结果分析只考虑温室气体效应的IS92a GG情景和同时考虑温室气体效应和硫化物气溶胶辐射效应的IS92a GS情景以及SRES A2、B2情景下宁夏区域21世纪地面气温和降水量的可能变化，并进行不确定性分析。气候基准时段（1961～1990年）模拟结果与观测资料的对比分析表明，GCM对宁夏气候具有一定的模拟能力；整体上讲，GCM对地面气温的模拟值偏低，对降水量的模拟值偏高，其中ECHAM4和HadCM3对宁夏基准时段地面气温和降水量的模拟结果与观测比较接近。各GCM模拟值的平均结果显示，4种温室气体排放情景下21世纪宁夏区域气温持续升高，至21世纪末宁夏升温幅度可达4～6℃，与全国平均的增温幅度大致相当；与升温趋势相应的是降水量的增加，但降水变化呈现出很大的波动性，至21世纪末宁夏的降水变化幅度可达10％～40％。各个GCM模拟的宁夏气候变化的总趋势是一致的，但各模式在不同情景下模拟结果的差异很大，存在较大的不确定性。
The possible changes of surface air temperature and precipitation as well as uncertainties of the Global Climate Models （GCMs）-based projection under IS92a GG scenario just considering the greenhouse gases （GHGs） warming effects, IS92a GS scenario with consideration of combined GHGs effects and sulphate radiation effects and the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios in the 21st century had been analyzed. It is shown from the comparison of baseline （1961-1990） climate simulation and observation that GCMs possess the capacity to simulate the present climate in Ningxia, the simulated temperature is lower and the simulated precipitation is higher than observations in general, the simulated results of ECHAM4 and HadCM3 are much close to the observations. Average trend of GCMs projections under 4 scenarios shows that the temperature would continuously increase to 4-6 ℃ by the end of the 21st century, near the increase of whole country average, corresponding to the warming trend, the precipitation would also increase to 10%-40% by the end of the 21st century with great inter-annual variability. It is presented that the overall climate change trend from various GCMs simulation is coincident, but the obvious bias among GCMs results indicates that there still exist large uncertainties in climate scenario projection in Ningxia.
出处
《气候与环境研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第5期629-637,共9页
Climatic and Environmental Research
基金
中英气候变化双边合作研究项目"气候变化对宁夏农业影响的综合分析研究"
国家科技攻关2004BA611B02课题
中国气象局气候变化专项CCSF2006-16
国家"十一五"科技支撑计划课题2007BAC03A02
关键词
宁夏
全球气候模式
排放情景
地面气温
降水
Ningxia, global climate model, emission scenarios, surface air temperature, precipitation
