摘要
基于灰色预测理论,给出了飞行事故率和事故症候率预测分析的新方法。分析结果表明,采用灰色预测理论对飞行事故率和事故症候率进行预测分析,可以得到满意的预测精度,从而为民用航空器运营管理提供决策依据。
The new forecast analysis method on the flight accident-rate and the flight incident-rate is discussed by using the forecast method based on grey control principle. The result shows that the satisfied precision of the forecast analysis on flight accident-rate and flight incident-rate can be obtained by using grey forecast. The decision basis for safety management of the civil aircraft operation may be provided.
出处
《中国民航大学学报》
CAS
2007年第6期9-10,18,共3页
Journal of Civil Aviation University of China
关键词
飞行事故
事故症候
预测方法
灰色理论
flight accident
flight incident
forecast method
grey control principle
