摘要
为了更好的预测旅游业未来的发展状况，本文以1999年至2006年桂林市各季度旅游总收入的具体数据为例，根据旅游既有增长趋势又有季节波动的特点拟合ARMA模型作时间序列分析，并对未来两年内各季度旅游总收入进行了预测，从而为旅游业及相关产业规划与决策提供了正确依据。
In order to forecast the future development of tourism more precisely,this paper takes the number of the seasonal gross revenue of tourism from 1999 year to 2006 year in Guilin city as a example. Then,according to two characteristics of increasing trend and seasonal trend in tourism,ARMA model is screened to make time series analysis. The seasonal gross revenue of tourism in next two years forecast is forecasted, which provides theoretical base for tourism and related industries.
基金
国家自然科学基金(10661006)
广西“新世纪十百千人才工程”专项资金(2005214)
广西自然科学基金(桂科自0728212)
桂林工学院课外学术科技作品资助项目
