摘要
协整分析表明,1978年之前,我国非农就业对城镇就业具有明显的促进作用,但没有出现大规模农村人口向城镇转移的现象;1978年之后,我国城镇就业增长远远滞后于非农就业,且两者不存在显著的G ranger因果关系。片面重工化战略和农村工业化战略导致非农就业的发展与非农就业人口向城镇转移相互脱离,制约了城镇就业规模的增长和中国城市化的发展。
The cointegration analysis indicates that the non -agricultural employment promotes the urban employment clearly but there is not the phenomenon that many rural people transfer to the urban areas before 1978 ; after 1978, the growth in urban employment falls behind the growth in non - agricultural employment greatly, and there is not clearly Granger causality between them. Because of the one - sided heavy industrialization strategy and the rural industrialization strategy, the growth in non - agricultural employment separates from the course of the non - agricultural employment transferring to the urban areas , which restricts the growth in urban employment scale and the urbanization development of China.
出处
《经济经纬》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第6期119-122,共4页
Economic Survey
关键词
工业化战略
非农就业
城镇就业
协整分析
industrialization strategy
non - agricultural employment
urban employment
cointegration analysis
