摘要
在概述近几十年来关于大气环流和海温等条件与台风活动关系方面以中国学者为主的研究之后,重点介绍了最近关于西太平洋台风气候年际变异和预测研究的若干新的进展。主要包括:西太平洋台风活动频次和登陆中国台风的气候年际变化特征,以及从动力数值模式和动力统计方法两个方面如何进行台风气候的预测。关于台风气候的年际变异,重点介绍了有关台风气候年际变异和南极涛动、北太平洋涛动、北太平洋海冰覆盖面积指数以及西太平洋暖池热状态之间的联系。关于台风气候的动力数值预测,介绍了基于中国科学院大气物理研究所的气候模式所进行的第一个针对西太平洋台风气候的预测试验结果。本文还介绍了一个动力统计预测模型及其回报情况。
This paper briefly reviewed the studies of the relationships between the typhoon activity and the atmospheric circulation as well as the sea surface temperature in the first part. Then the authors introduced some new research results about the interannual variability and prediction of the typhoon climate, including the frequency of typhoon genesis and landfall, as well as the typhoon climate prediction by using both the numerical climate model and the dynamical-statistical model. These researches relate the Antarctic oscillation, the North Pacific oscillation, sea ice coverage, and thermal state of the warm pool over the western Pacific. On the prediction aspect, the paper introduced the first attempt to make the seasonal prediction of the typhoon climate by use of the climate model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and a new dynamical-statistical model for the prediction of the typhoon frequency.
出处
《大气科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第6期1076-1081,共6页
Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目40631005
40620130113
40775049
关键词
西太平洋台风
年际变异
南极涛动
北太平洋涛动
气候预测
the western North Pacific typhoon, interannual variability, Antarctic oscillation, the North Pacific oscillation, climate prediction
