摘要
文中全面介绍了1966～1996年我国地震预报研究历程及所获得的主要成果。针对我国大陆地震活动频度高、强度大、分布范围广、震源浅、地震灾害严重的特点，以大陆板内地震活动规律和前兆观测研究为主要目标的我国地震预报研究，着重从我国地震及前兆观测台网建设和预报方法研究、中长期地震预测研究和地震重点监测防御区确定以及中短期地震预报研究三方面进行了艰苦的探索，并取得了一些有减灾实效的较成功预报实例。三十年来的地震预报实践表明，地震是有前兆的，但由于板内地震活动及前兆现象极其复杂、多样，我国中长期预报水平提高较快，而短临预报的水平和能力仍很低，需要把我国的地震预报研究长期深入地坚持开展下去。
The research process and the main results on earthquake prediction in china are intro-duced comprehensively in this paper. Duo to the characteristics of high frequency, highintensity, wide distribution, shallow earthquake sources and serious seismic disasters inChina's mainland, the main research object of earthquake prediction in China is to studyinner-plate seismicity and precursory observation. It focuses on the 3 following fields: theconstruction of earthquake and precursory observation networks, the determination ofstrengthened observation and defence area and research on mid-short term earthquakeprediction. The hard explorations in these fields have been conducted, and some moresuccessful prediction examples with the effect on the disaster reduction have beenobtained. The practice of earthquake prediction in the recent 3O years shows that there isprecursory before earthquake, however, the inner-plate seismicity and precursory phe-nomenon are very complex and various, the level on medium-long term earthquake pre-diction rise more quickly but the level and capability on medium-short term is still ratherlow in China. It is necessary to keep on studying earthquake prediction in deep over a longtime.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1997年第3期317-324,共8页
Earthquake
关键词
地震预报
震源
地震活动性
China, Earthquake prediction, Research, Development
