摘要
目的通过我院2002年～2006年来各季度的实际住院量变化趋势,预测2007年我院各季的住院人数。方法运用移动平均趋势剔除法配合最小二乘法建立线性模型,并利用PEMS3.1统计软件包对模型进行回归分析。结果趋势季节回归模型为Yc=2530.6+250.35X,方差分析结果P<0.05,显示该方程呈直线相关关系,预测值=季平均预测值×各季的季节比率。结论通过预测住院人数为医院制定工作计划和领导决策提供可靠的依据,实现卫生资源的优化配置。
Objective Based on the trend of number of discharged inpatients in different seasons, in the hospital from 2002 - 2006 to forecast num- ber of inpatients in 2007. Methods Regression analysis was made by combining shifted average tendency culling and least squares method to establish linear model, and making use of PEMS 3.1 Statistics soft packet. Result Seasonal trend regression model is Yc = 2530.6 ＋ 250.35X, variance analysis P 〈 0.05, which shows the equation appearing relative straight line？ predictive value equals to seasonal square predictive value x seasonal rate. Conclusion Forecasting the number of discharged inpatients can supply reliable data to serve the leaders to draw up the plans and make decisions and optimize the sanitary materials.
出处
《中国病案》
2007年第11期21-22,共2页
Chinese Medical Record
关键词
趋势季节模型
住院人数
预测
seasonal tread model
number of inpatient
forecast
