摘要
目的应用病例交叉研究方法,探讨大气可吸入颗粒物(PM10)对长期高暴露环境下居民每日心脑血管疾病死亡率的影响。方法采用病例交叉设计方法和SAS9.0中的条件Logistic回归模型分析太原市2003-2004年太原市大气可吸入颗粒物与太原市65岁以上城市居民心脑血管疾病每日死亡的关系,同时比较双向对照设计和单向回顾性对照设计研究结果的差异。结果PM1072h累积影响最大,平均浓度每增加100μg/m3,对心脑血管疾病总死亡影响的OR值为1.126、心脏病OR值为1.305、、缺血性心脏病OR值为1.296、心肌梗死OR值为1.080、心衰OR值为1.136、心律失常OR值为1.133、中风OR值为1.228;不同空气污染特征下,污染物对心脑血管疾病死亡的影响不同。污染上升期,PM10对心脑血管疾病死亡影响高于其他污染特征期。单、双向对照设计比较,污染上升期,单向对照设计PM10对死亡影响的估计值高于双向对照设计,污染下降期则呈现出相反的趋势。结论太原市的PM10空气污染已对65岁以上居民心脑血管疾病死亡产生一定影响,应采取严格的空气污染措施以降低PM10污染水平,减少太原市居民心脑血管疾病死亡率。
Objective The present case cross-study was conducted to explore the effect of inhalable particular matters （PM10） on the daily mortality of cerebrocardiovascular diseases among highly and long-term exposed residents. Methods The relationship of PM10 and daily deaths of cerebrocardiovascular diseases among residents over 65 years old in Taiyuan was analyzed by case cross-study and conditional Logistic regression in SAS 9.0. Meanwhile, the difference of results between the two-way contrast and one-way retrospective contrast study was compared. Results The 72 h accumulated PM10 had the most significant effect. For each 100ppb increase in the average PM10 concentration, the corresponding OR of the effect on the total deaths of cerebrocardiovascular diseases was 1.126, and cardiac diseases 1.305, ischemic heart diseases 1.296, myocardial infarctions 1.080, cardiac failure 1.136, arrhythmia 1.133, stroke 1.228. Under different air-pollution conditions, pollutant presented different effects on deaths of cerebrocardiovascular diseases. The effect of PM10 on deaths of cerebrocardiovasculax diseases was higher at the rise period of pollution than others. Comparing the one- and two-way contrast study, higher estimated value of OR was found in one-way contrast study than in two-way contrast study at the rise period, vice versa. Conclusion The current PM10 pollution has caused certain effect on the cerebrocardiovascular mortality among residents older than 65 in Taiyuan. More stringent measures should be taken to control the air pollution and lower the PM10 level, and thus reduce the mortality of cerebrocardiovascular diseases for Taiyuan residents.
出处
《疾病监测》
CAS
2007年第8期556-559,共4页
Disease Surveillance
关键词
大气污染
病例交叉设计
心脑血管疾病
air pollution
case-cross study
cerebrocardiovascular diseases
