摘要
目的探讨利用移动平均数法和传染病网络直报系统监测数据开展传染病疫情预警。方法收集整理2004、2005年传染病网络直报疫情数据,计算发病基线,确定概率界值α及μα界值,利用公式W=■+μαSi计算ni预警值,绘制预警控制图,引入2006年发病数据,进行判读与反应。结果根据传染病病种的危害性、严重性及可控制性等特点,确定概率界值为0.01,则μα(单位)≈2,计算各周的预警值。根据绘制预警控制图,可判定第1周、第2周副疫情有流行趋势。结论移动平均数法预警适合发病数较多的传染病疫情,预警基线数据和预警概率界值是预警成功的关键数据。
Objective The study was conducted to determine the performance of the moving average method in early warning of infectious diseases with data of Network Surveillance System for infectious diseases. Methods Data of Network Surveillance System for infectious diseases in 2004, 2005 were collected for calculating the incidence baseline to determine the probability value α and μα, The threshold of early warning was calculated by the equation：W=X^Nni^- ＋ μαSi, with which a control chart of early warning was drawn. The incidence data in 2006 were introduced for interpretation and reaction. Results The probability value was defined as 0.01 on the basis of the harmfulness, severity and controllablility of infectious diseases, then μα（unilateral）≈2. The thresholds of weekly early warning were then calculated, A vice epidemic trend could be seen at week 1 and week 2 from the control chart. Conclusion The moving average method for early warning is applicable for high-incidence infectious diseases. The baseline data and probability values of early warning are the key to successful warning.
出处
《疾病监测》
CAS
2007年第8期523-525,共3页
Disease Surveillance
关键词
移动平均数
预警
传染病网络直报
moving average
early warning
network surveillance system for infectious diseases
