摘要
本文通过一个广义货币供应量、财政支出和国内生产总值三变量向量误差修正模型(VECM)考察中国1978—2005年间货币政策和财政政策对经济增长影响的差异性特征。在应用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法研究它们之间的动态特性后发现:积极货币政策的经济增长效果无论在短期还是长期内均要强于财政政策,长期内,积极货币政策对经济增长一直有递减的正效应,但是积极财政政策由于挤出效应的影响,长期内对经济增长呈负效应。
Based on a three-variable error-correction model, the paper analyzes the different features between monetary and fiscal policy in China economic growth from 1978 to 2005. After applying the impulse response function and variance decomposition to estimate the dynamic characteristics, we find the impacts of active fiscal policy and active monetary policy to economic growth is different in short-term and long-term run. In both cases, active monetary policy could promote the economic growth, and in the long term, the effect is descending as time goes. Active fiscal policy also has negative effect because public investment expenditure crowds out private investment expenditure.
出处
《财经论丛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第5期42-47,共6页
Collected Essays on Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(05BJY056)
关键词
经济增长
货币政策
财政政策
脉冲响应
economic growth
monetary policy
fiscal policy
impulse response
