摘要
本文详细考察了麦金农所构造的"本币升值的通货紧缩效应"理论模型的作用机制,并以此为基础检验了该理论机制在中国的适用性。检验结果表明,在长期中人民币实际有效汇率升值伴随着物价水平和贸易盈余的下降,这说明该理论机制在中国并没有出现。据此,本文认为,我国货币当局在制定汇率政策时,不必过于担心汇率升值对国内物价水平的紧缩影响,更不用因此而采取扩张性的货币政策来冲销通货紧缩的负面影响。
In this thesis, we particularly reviewed the mechanism of the theory on the deflation effect of currency appreciation by Ronald McKinnon, and then we tested the effectiveness of this theory on the situation in China. The result shows that, in the long run, the appreciation of REER is concomitant with the decrease of CPI and trade balance. This suggests that that theory does not fit China. According it, we figured out that, when the monetary authority of China determines the exchange rate policies, they wouldn＇t worry about the deflation effect of currency appreciation on the CPI, nor taking easy monetary policy to sterilize the bad effect of deflation.
出处
《南开经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第3期144-152,共9页
Nankai Economic Studies
关键词
汇率升值
通货紧缩
贸易余额
物价水平
Currency Appreciation
Deflation
Trade Balance
Price Level
