摘要
精河流域上游的3个树轮年表与精河5～8月的平均气温相关显著.考虑到气温对树木年轮生长的滞后效应,重建了精河1468—2001年的5～8月的平均气温,方差解释量为62.2%.在1468—2001年的534 a中精河共经历了7个偏暖和7个偏冷期,在不同阶段气温的变化周期不一致,气温在1541年、1684年、1855年和1969年前后出现突变.
Three Tree-ring chronologies are obtained by using the ARSTAN program based on conifer samples （Picea Schrenkiana Var Tiansclhanica） collected from Tianshan Mountains. Single correlation calculation indicated that the correlations are significant among the three treering chronologies and temperature from May to August at Jinghe in Tianshan Mountains, the greatest single correlation coefficient is 0. 511 （significant is much greater than the 99.9 percent level）. The result has distinct physiological significance. Considering the hysteresis of tree growth to temperature, an average temperature series from May to August was well reconstructed and its explain variance was 62.62% by means of the tree-ring chronology series. It was verified that the reconstructed temperature was reliable by leave-oneout. Some results obtained by analyzing the 534 years reconstructed temperature series are as follows： 1） In the past 534 years, there were 296 normal years, which overwhelming proportion was 55.4 %. And there were 32 extra-warmer years and 17 extra-colder years. Source experienced 7 warmer periods and 7 colder periods, 3 colder periods among this periods accorded with that of Chinese Litter Ice Age and Tibetan Plateau. 2）Significant change periods is dissimilar in different period, 40 a periods accorded with that of the global temperature field. 3） Occurrence of 4 abrupt changesin 1541, 1684, abrupt year of 1969 Ice Core. 1855, 1969 was is also detected detected, and in the Guliya
出处
《冰川冻土》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第3期374-379,共6页
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
基金
中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2006-20)
国家自然科学基金项目(903020124026500240475041)
中国气象局项目"基于树轮分析与遥感技术的干旱山地森林长势监测研究"资助
关键词
树木年轮
精河
气温重建
tree-ring
Jinghe
reconstruction of temperature
