摘要
根据地震资料，对东南沿海地震区地震活动特征及未来趋势进行了初步分析与研究。结果表明：①从地震活动轮回分析，东南沿海地震区从1959年开始的第五个轮回中的地震活跃时段，估计将延续到2031年前后结束，而后转入本轮回的平静时段；②2000年以前，研究区有可能发生1次MS≥6．0地震，到2005年则最多发生2次；③东南沿海地震区下一次发生MS≥6．0地震的地区可能在河源—邵武地震带上，尤其可能发生在该带与莲花山地震带西南端的复合部位及其相邻地区。
This paper preliminarily analysed and studied the characteristics and the trend ofseismicity in the southeast coastal seismic area based on the seismicity data. The resultsshow that: (1) Based on analysis of large cyclic seismicity, the active earthquake Periodof the fifth cycle, which began from 1959, should be ended around 2031, and then enterthe quiet Period of the cycle in the Southeast coastal seismic area. (2) One earthquake withMs＞6.0 should occur at most before 2000, and two at most before 2005. (3) Theregion, where the next earthquake MS＞6.0 should occur, may be the Heyuan-Shaowuseismic zone, especially the composite location of the zone and the south-western end ofLianhua Mountain seismic zone and its adjacent regions.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1997年第2期175-183,共9页
Earthquake
关键词
东南沿海
地震活动特征
趋势预测
地震区
地震
South-eastern Coast, Seismicity feature, Trend prediction, Synthesis correlation of multiplicity factors
